Elon Musk's SpaceX Poised to Drain Billions From AI Rivals Anthropic and OpenAI as IPO Looms

In a surprising twist, one of the hottest companies for investors buying and selling private company shares right now isn't a familiar giant like OpenAI, but a newer artificial intelligence player called Anthropic. Demand for Anthropic's stock has become incredibly high. Meanwhile, shares for its competitor, OpenAI, seem to be much harder to sell.

Reports suggest investors have billions ready to pour into Anthropic, but roughly $600 million worth of OpenAI shares are currently sitting unsold. This shift shows a big change in how people are viewing these two major AI companies. One expert who helps broker these deals says Anthropic is the toughest stock to find because no one wants to sell it.

A big reason for Anthropic's sudden popularity might be an unexpected public spat with the US Department of Defense. What first looked like bad news for the company actually turned into a boost. People rallied around Anthropic, seeing them as a bit of a hero standing up to big government, which helped differentiate them from OpenAI in investors' eyes.

Glen Anderson, who runs an investment bank called Rainmaker Securities, has a front-row seat to this fascinating moment in the world of private stock trading. He's been doing this since 2010, back when only a handful of big investors focused on private companies. Today, there are thousands, all looking for the next big thing before it goes public. Rainmaker helps facilitate trades in about a thousand different private company stocks.

For years, many investors simply wanted to own a piece of both major AI companies, hoping to cover their bases. While the long-term winner in the AI race is still undecided, Anderson notes that the short-term excitement has definitely moved towards Anthropic. This doesn't mean OpenAI is collapsing, but the energy around its stock isn't as vibrant.

OpenAI shares on the private market are reportedly trading at a lower valuation than what the company recently raised money at directly. In fact, some big banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are now offering OpenAI shares to their wealthy clients without charging their usual profit-sharing fees. This makes it easier for investors to buy OpenAI. For Anthropic, however, Goldman is charging its standard profit-sharing fee, often a slice of 15 to 20 percent of any gains, showing just how much hotter Anthropic shares are right now.

But there's an even bigger player about to shake things up: SpaceX. This rocket and satellite powerhouse has been on a consistent upward trend, even during tough times when many other private companies saw their share values drop significantly. Unlike many firms that try to get the highest possible price for their stock in every funding round, SpaceX chose a more careful approach.

This careful strategy meant earlier investors had plenty of room for their investments to grow, leading to huge returns. For example, someone who invested in SpaceX around 2015, when it was valued at about $12 billion, is now looking at gains more than 100 times their initial investment. The company is currently valued at over $1 trillion.

Now, SpaceX is preparing to go public, potentially in June, after confidentially filing for an Initial Public Offering this week. This could be one of the largest stock market debuts ever, with reports suggesting Elon Musk aims to raise tens of billions of dollars. This news has already sent a ripple through the private market for SpaceX shares.

The closer a company gets to an IPO, the less likely existing shareholders are to sell their private stock, because they know they'll soon be able to sell it on the public market. This creates a huge surge in demand for any available shares. Anderson reports that he's seeing a flood of new interest in SpaceX stock, but supply is quickly drying up.

This is where things get tricky for OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which are also reportedly eyeing their own public offerings this year. SpaceX filing first means it will be the first to test the market's appetite for new, massive IPOs. Anderson bluntly states that SpaceX is going to "soak up a lot of liquidity," meaning it will absorb a huge amount of the money investors have set aside for new stock offerings.

There's only so much money available for new IPOs at any given time. The company that goes first gets to access that money before anyone else. Those who follow might find less capital available and face more scrutiny from investors. This dynamic plays out across industries, and even red-hot AI companies aren't immune. Timing an IPO perfectly is crucial: go too early, and you're the guinea pig. Wait too long, and the biggest checks might have already been written to someone else.

What do you think about Anthropic's sudden surge in popularity compared to OpenAI? Do you believe SpaceX's massive IPO will really overshadow other companies trying to go public this year?

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Filed under: AIinvestment, SpaceXIPO, Anthropic, OpenAI, PrivateMarket